After weeks of research and anecdotal experience navigating local multiplexes, it’s painfully clear that small movies have largely disappeared from theaters. If you enjoy original, small, or otherwise offbeat movies that don’t follow the franchise IP or horror templates, you’ll likely be watching them at home.
The clearest evidence of this phenomenon comes from analyzing global box office returns against budget, for which the traditional industry rule is to aim for a worldwide box office of two to 2.5 times budget to ensure profitability. I focused my research on small to medium budget movies ranging from under 10 to 50 million.
The success stories are almost always horror movies that open wide and easily recoup their budget by opening weekend. MaXXXine took a 1 million budget and lukewarm critical reviews yet still made 22 million in theaters. Longlegs was made for under 10 million and generated an astonishing 109 million at the box office. A 2024 remake of Speak No Evil has made 76 million worldwide against a budget of 15 million.
Likewise, I looked back to late 2023 and early 2024 to find a handful of low budget movies that fall far afield of genre plays yet emerged as big awards winners that did very well with theatergoers. Most began as limited releases, expanding wide after awards season to capitalize on positive buzz. Past Lives made 42 million on a 12 million budget, while The Zone of Interest grossed 52 million on a 15 million budget, and Poor Things cost 30 million and made 117. An ice cold Nazi drama (Zone) or wacky fantastical coming of age story (Poor Things) are about as far from mainstream as imaginable, yet both came together financially.
But for practically any small movie that doesn’t fit a genre play or awards winner, the outcomes are often grim. Kinds of Kindness is by buzzy director Yorgos Lanthimos alongside a fairly recognizable cast (e.g., Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons) yet could barely make its base budget of $ 15 million back at theaters. I Saw the TV Glow has been hailed by critics but only made five million on a ten million budget. The comedy caper Drive Away Dolls cost 13 million, and only made back eight. Even a throwback revenge horror with A24’s and Kristen Stewart’s star power couldn’t save Love Lies Bleeding from fizzling out at 13 million box office on a 10 million budget.
Of course, overall profitability of any movie is a murky, inexact science, because many derive a large percentage of their revenue from PVOD and streaming services, the details of which are rarely made public. Indeed, I’d speculate several small films are able to court a much bigger audience and financial viability through streaming. For example, when browsing through Max over the last few weeks, I kept seeing I Saw the TV Glow and Love Lies Bleeding hovering in high positions of the “most watched” top ten list. Both movies have A24 as their distributor, who recently signed an agreement to make Max the exclusive streaming home for all A24 films. I imagine the deal was financially lucrative, which in turn justifies the investment in movies like TV Glow and Love Lies.
Likewise, the Ira Sachs romantic drama Passages only made about a million worldwide in theaters, slightly less than its production budget. But the movie secured distribution from Mubi, which released it as a high profile streaming exclusive. As a longtime Mubi subscriber, I saw Passages near the top of most watched and trending lists for almost a year after its debut. That’s the kind of draw that can be financially significant in driving subscription revenue.
Small movies that run a little less art house and feature recognizable cast and crew can often find success on PVOD. The actor Zoe Kravitz made her directorial debut earlier this year with the psychological thriller Blink Twice. It had a modest performance in theaters with a little over 22 million domestically on a 20 million budget, and never reached past #4 in the box office charts. Yet a few weeks later, its digital debut opened at number one on PVOD iTunes charts. Even at $19.99 USD per rental, Blink Twice performed impressively, staying in the iTunes top five rentals for nearly a month. The studios and distributors also benefit from a better revenue share, around 80 percent compared to a theatrical deal that splits revenue 50/50.
And don’t take Blink Twice as an anomaly. IndieWire reported in 2023 that Focus Features, Universal’s indie wing, often earned more from PVOD than theatrical grosses, making it easier to greenlight more small budget films. Put another way, many small budget movies lose money in theaters, depending almost entirely on income from VOD rentals and streaming deals to stay profitable. It’s no wonder many skip theater distribution altogether, opting for a streamer like Netflix or Apple TV to secure a strong financial lifeline from the start.
So what led to such a bifurcated moviegoing experience? Tentpole sequels like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine play in extended theatrical runs that generate so much money for a studio like Disney or Universal that they only need a few each year to stay profitable (for Disney, it only took one). Meanwhile, practically any festival movie opens in at best a few hundred theaters before heading to PVOD and an anonymous tile on a streaming service near you a few months later.
The problem for small movies is a simultaneous squeeze on supply and demand. On the supply side, movie production costs are skyrocketing, studio heads have gotten increasingly skittish about distributing and marketing all but the biggest hitmakers, and theater space is often prioritized for blockbusters so theaters – already in panic mode since the pandemic – keep their heads above water. As a result, your average indie, adult-oriented drama typically opens on no more than a few hundred screens in only the biggest movie markets.
Regarding demand, as I wrote about earlier this year, moviegoers for smaller, character focused movies are staying home. They don’t want to contend with poor theatrical experiences, distracting audiences, endless advertisements, and skyrocketing ticket prices. Furthermore, Disney and other studios have trained audiences over the last decade that mega IP “event” movies are the only movies worth heading to the movies for. Those willing to wait a month or less can watch on PVOD on the device of their choice.
These long-term shifts in supply and demand explain why indie film lovers who still want to see them on the big screen have faced such an emotional journey. My sunny optimism on the subject in the 2010s receded to anger and idealism by 2021 and grim acceptance today. My advice is straightforward: if you have a theater near you that regularly shows small or classic movies, cherish it while you can. And for all of us, with movies increasingly at home, invest in a good home watching setup, build up tastes that go beyond algorithms (pick and choose your streaming sites, rent as needed), and keep an eye out when exciting titles arrive on VOD, streaming, and 4K Blu-ray.